Crime and Persistent Punishment : A Long-Run Perspective on the Links between Violence and Chronic Poverty in Mexico

Martinez-Cruz, Adan L. ; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: HOMICIDE;    UNEMPLOYMENT;    HOUSEHOLD SURVEY;    CONSUMPTION;    AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7706
RP-ID  :  WPS7706

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The relationship between violence andchronic poverty has been studied mostly in the context ofwar or long-term episodes of conflict. In contrast toprevious studies, this paper explores whether violence thatdoes not include the shattering of infrastructure impactsthe chance that poverty may remain chronic. A long-runperspective is gained by analyzing unique, recently gatheredpanel data at the municipality level in the Mexican context,covering the period from 1990 to 2010. Violence is measuredas the number of non-drug-related homicides per 100,000inhabitants. A municipality is classified as chronicallypoor if the percentage of people in food poverty remainsabove the national average during two consecutive periods.Econometric analysis is carried out through discrete choicemodels. Putting the results in context, consider of achronically poor municipality in 2005 in which averagehousehold income is below the 25th percentile in 2000. Ifthis municipality had a 10.47 non-drug-related homiciderate, the 75th percentile in 2000, its chance of remainingchronically poor into 2005 was almost double thecorresponding chance of a municipality with the same meanhousehold income but at the national median of violence in2000 (zero non-drug-related homicides).