Small Area Estimation of Poverty under Structural Change

Lange, Simon ; Pape, Utz Johann ; Putz, Peter

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: POVERTY ESTIMATE;    SMALL AREA ESTIMATION;    CENSUS;    CONSUMPTION SURVEY;    POVERTY MEASUREMENT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8472
RP-ID  :  WPS8472

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Small area poverty maps allow for thedesign of policies based on spatial differences in welfare.They are typically estimated based on a consumption surveyreporting on poverty and a census providing the spatialdisaggregation. This paper presents a new method whichallows for the estimation of up-to-date small area povertymaps when only a dated census and a more recent survey areavailable and predictors and structural parameters aresubject to drift over time, a situation commonly encounteredin practice. Instead of using survey variables to explainconsumption in the survey, the new approach uses variablesconstructed from the census. The proposed estimator hasfewer data requirements and weaker assumptions than commonsmall area poverty map estimators. Applications to simulateddata and to poverty estimation in Brazil show an overallgood performance.