Power System Implications of Subsidy Removal, Regional Electricity Trade, and Carbon Constraints in MENA Economies

Timilsina, Govinda R. ; Deluque Curiel, Ilka Fabiana

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: POWER SYSTEM;    REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRADE;    FUEL SUBSIDY;    GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS;    ELECTRICITY PLANNING;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9297
RP-ID  :  WPS9297

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study analyzes impacts on the powersector in the Middle East and North Africa region of threepolicies: removal of fuel subsidies, cross-borderelectricity trade, and reduction of carbon dioxide emissionsin line with commitments under the Paris Agreement. Theanalysis uses a power system planning model that minimizesthe total electricity supply cost over 2018–35 by satisfyingspecified technical, economic, environmental, and policyconstraints. The study shows that the region would savebetween US$26.3 billion and US$27.5 billion, measured in2018 prices, by removing subsidies of natural gas used forpower generation. It would save US$83.6 billion to US$90.9billion through cross-border electricity trade. The twopolicies together would yield a reduction of 10 percent incumulative power sector carbon dioxide emissions in theregion, with a net cost savings of US$111 billion. If acarbon constraining policy is considered to achieve the samelevel of reduction of emissions, the cost of the powersystem would increase by US$97 billion. The study alsoreveals that the benefits of subsidy removal would be higherin the presence of cross-border trade, and the benefits ofcross-border trade would be higher in the absence of fuel subsidies.