Responses to Weather and Climate : A Cross-Section Analysis of Rural Incomes

Noack, Frederik ; Wunder, Sven ; Angelsen, Arild ; Bö ; rner, Jan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CALCIUM;    POPULATION DENSITIES;    FOREST DEGRADATION;    FISH;    DURABLE GOODS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7478
RP-ID  :  WPS7478

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

How much do poor rural households relyon environmental extraction from natural ecosystems? And howdoes climate variability impact their livelihoods? Thispaper sheds light on these two questions with householdincome data from the Poverty and Environment Networkpantropical data set, combined with climate data for thepast three decades. The study finds that extraction of wildresources (from natural forests, bushlands, fallows, etc.)provides on average as much income (about 27 percent) ascrops across the smallholder sample. The cross-section dataon past reactions to household self-perceived economicshocks and observed production reactions to climateanomalies can, respectively, provide hints about livelihoodvulnerability to current climate variability, which islikely to worsen with climate change. Forest extraction didnot figure among the most favored response strategies tohouseholds’ self-perceived economic shocks, but householdsundertake subtle substitutions in sector production inresponse to weather anomalies that accentuate suboptimalclimatic conditions for cropping.By relying more on forestextraction and wages, households compensate quitesuccessfully for declining crop incomes. This paints acautiously optimistic picture about fairly flexible rurallivelihood reactions to current climate variability, andfeaturing forests as potentially important in householdcoping strategies.