Demand-Driven Propagation : Evidence from the Great Recession

Nguyen, Hu

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: JOBS;    EMPLOYMENT;    MONETARY POLICY;    STORE;    MULTIPLIERS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7456
RP-ID  :  WPS7456

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper provides empirical evidencefor the Keynesian demand-driven propagation: initial roundsof job losses lead to additional rounds of job losses. Thepaper shows that U.S. counties with higher pre-existingexposure to tradable industries experienced larger joblosses in non-tradable sectors during the Great Recession.This was arguably because laid-off tradable workers cuttheir consumption, which hurts local non-tradable firms. Thefinding is not driven by exposure to the constructionsector, by the collapse in house prices, or by credit supplyproblems. In addition, the spillover is stronger when thefocus is on the job losses of more income-elasticnon-tradable sectors.