Guns, Books, or Doctors? Conflict and Public Spending in Haiti : Lessons from Cross-Country Evidence

Singh, Raju Jan ; Bodea, Cristina ; Higashijima, Masaaki

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: SANITATION;    LIVING STANDARDS;    TERRORISM;    ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE;    CIVIL CONFLICT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7681
RP-ID  :  WPS7681

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Haiti's economic development hasbeen held back by a history of civil conflict and violence.With donor assistance declining from its exceptional levelsfollowing the 2010 earthquake, and concessional financinggrowing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budgetconstraints. At the same time, the United Nations forcesthat have provided security in the past decade are scalingdown. Against this backdrop, this paper explores theconditions under which public spending can minimize violentconflict, and draws possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing onan empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period1960-2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases inmilitary spending would be associated with a higher risk ofconflict, an observation in line with Haiti's ownhistory. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, andsocial assistance), by contrast, would be associated withlower risk of conflict.