Why Did Poverty Decline in India? : A Nonparametric Decomposition Exercise

Balcazar, Carlos Felipe ; Desai, Sonal ; Murgai, Rinku ; Narayan, Ambar

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION;    STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION;    HOUSEHOLD SIZE;    POVERTY LINE;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7602
RP-ID  :  WPS7602

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses panel data to analyzefactors that contributed to the rapid decline in poverty inIndia between 2005 and 2012. The analysis employs anonparametric decomposition method that measures therelative contributions of different components of householdlivelihoods to observed changes in poverty. The results showthat poverty decline is associated with a significantincrease in labor earnings, explained in turn by a steeprise in wages for unskilled labor, and diversification fromfarm to nonfarm sources of income in rural areas. Transfers,in the form of remittances and social programs, havecontributed but are not the primary drivers of povertydecline over this period. The pattern of changes isconsistent with processes associated with structuraltransformation, which add up to a highly pro-poor pattern ofincome growth over the initial distribution of income andconsumption. However, certain social groups (Adivasis andDalits) are found to be more likely to stay in or fall intopoverty and less likely to move out of poverty. And even aspoverty has reduced dramatically, the share of vulnerablepopulation has not.