Mangroves as Protection from Storm Surges in a Changing Climate

Blankespoor, Brian ; Dasgupta, Susmita ; Lange, Glenn-Marie

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FLOODING;    FISH;    WETLAND RESTORATION;    LAND USES;    ANNUAL LOSS RATE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7596
RP-ID  :  WPS7596

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Adaptation to climate change includesaddressing sea level rise and increased storm surges in manycoastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce thevulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundationand erosion. However, climate change poses a large threat tomangroves. This paper quantifies the coastal protectionprovided by mangroves for 42 developing countries in thecurrent climate, and a future climate change scenario with aone-meter sea level rise and 10 percent intensification ofstorms. The benefits of the coastal protection provided bymangroves are measured in terms of population and grossdomestic product at a reduced risk from inundation; the lossof benefits under climate change is measured as theincreased population and gross domestic product at risk. Thefindings demonstrate that although sea level rise andincreased storm intensity would increase storm surge areasand the amounts of built resources at risk, the greatestimpact is the expected loss of mangroves. Under currentclimate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people androughly $400 million in gross domestic product of are atrisk. In the future climate change scenario, the vulnerablepopulation and gross domestic product at risk would increaseby 103 and 233 percent, respectively. The greatest risk isin East Asia, especially in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar.