Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?

Constantinescu, Cristina ; Mattoo, Aaditya ; Ruta, Michele

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GROWTH RATES;    EMPLOYMENT;    TRADE VOLUMES;    PARTICULAR COUNTRY;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7673
RP-ID  :  WPS7673

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Since the Global Financial Crisis, worldtrade growth has been subdued and lagging slightly behindgrowth of gross domestic product. Trade is growing moreslowly not only because growth of global gross domesticproduct is lower, but also because trade itself has becomeless responsive to gross domestic product. This paperreviews the reasons behind the changing trade-incomerelationship, and then investigates its consequences foreconomic growth. On the demand side, sluggish world importgrowth may adversely affect individual countries'economic growth, as it limits opportunities for theirexports. On the supply side, slower trade may diminish thescope for productivity growth through increasingspecialization and diffusion of technologies. The paperfinds preliminary evidence that the changing trade-incomerelationship matters, although the quantifiable effects donot appear to be large.