Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology

Ahmed, S. Amer ; Cruz, Marcio ; Quillan, Bryce ; Schellekens, Philip

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: demographic change;    demographic dividend;    economic development;    demographics;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7893
RP-ID  :  WPS7893

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Demographic change can be a positivecontributor to development at any stage of demographictransition. This paper revisits the literature on thedeterminants and economic impacts of demographic change, andpresents a new global typology that classifies countriesinto four categories based on demographic characteristicsand future development potential. In the first group arehigh-fertility, low-income countries that are lagging inmany human development indicators. In the second group aremostly low- and lower-middle-income countries wherefertility rates have started falling recently and wherechanges in age structure offer tremendous opportunity forgrowth in the near future. The third group comprises mostlyupper-middle-income countries that experienced rapidfertility declines in the 1960s, and where working agepeople will be a shrinking share of the population in thecoming decade. The last group is made up of mostlyhigh-income countries that have some of the highest sharesof elderly in the world, and below-replacement fertilityrates since at least the 1980s. The typology helps identifydevelopment policy priorities for countries in differentstages of demographic transition, and opportunities throughglobalization due to demographic differences between countries.