On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty

Cruz, Marcio ; Ahmed, S. Amer

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: demographics;    economic growth;    savings;    poverty;    demographic change;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7805
RP-ID  :  WPS7805

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Changing population age structures areshaping the trajectories of development in many countries,bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has beena matter of concern for upper-middle and high-incomeeconomies, rapid population growth is set to continue in thepoorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time,these countries will see sustained increases in theworking-age shares of their population, and these shiftshave the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty. Thispaper describes the main mechanisms through whichdemographic change may affect economic outcomes, andestimates the association between changes in the share ofworking-age population with per capita growth, savings, andpoverty rate. An increase of one percentage point in theworking-age population share is found to be associated withan increase in gross domestic product per capita growth bymore than one percentage point, with similarly positiveeffects on savings and poverty reduction.