Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting : Investing for Sustainability and Impact across Global, Regional, and National Centers

Kull, Daniel ; Graessle, Corinne ; Aryan, Barzin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: SKILLS;    FORECASTS;    IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;    UNCERTAINTIES;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7609
RP-ID  :  WPS7609

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services oftenface considerable constraints in delivering the informationneeded to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation,which, if improved, could generate socioeconomicbenefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weatherforecasting adopts a cascading approach where numericalproducts developed by global producing centers feedregional and national models, with national forecastersassimilating these and other data to produce informationcustomized for local users. The system depends on globalproducing centers sharing their products, often throughvoluntary action without dedicated financing, which isnot sustainable and does not fully leverage the capacityof global producing centers to provide tailored information.It would be economically viable for global producingcenters to provide their full suite of services to low-incomecountries, producing likely global socioeconomic benefits ofUS$200 million to US$500 million per year, outweighingthe costs by about 80 to one. Existing global producingcenters’ capacities and their potential benefits for lowincomecountries fulfill the utilitarian principal. Globalnumerical weather prediction should therefore be treatedas a global public good. However, although recent globaldevelopment and climate agreements clearly suggest thatimproving forecasting in low-income countries shouldbe a target of international cooperation, official developmentassistance financing of high-income country globalproducing centers to provide products to low-incomecountries would be considered tied aid. Specialized mechanisms,such as the Green Climate Fund, could providelegitimate means to finance global producing centers toprovide global public services in support of low-incomecountries. However, to realize the potential benefits, significantinvestment is needed in regional and nationalforecasting, early warning, and preparedness capacities.