Does the 2015 Peace Accord in Mali Reflect the Priorities of Households and Local Leaders?

Lendorfer, Julia ; Hoogeveen, Johannes

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: conflict resolution;    peace keeping;    fragility;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7749
RP-ID  :  WPS7749

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Using unique household level datacollected in northern Mali in August and September 2015,this paper explores whether the content of the 2015 PeaceAccord reflects the concerns and priorities of the citizens,local leaders, and refugees, or whether it is an exclusiveagreement between elites who fail to represent the interestsof the population at large. The study finds that localleaders’ opinions are appropriate proxies for the citizensthey represent, and most (but not all) of the measuresstipulated in the Peace Accord align. The greatestdivergence between citizen preferences and actions specifiedin the Peace Accord is the emphasis in the latter on roadinfrastructure. When different activities are costed, thisdisconnect becomes very apparent. The bulk of funds (45percent) are apportioned to infrastructure construction,while the typical respondent prefers job creation; thepoorest prefer investments in social services. However, mostof infrastructure spending has been earmarked for the mediumterm. Short-term priorities reflect the preferences of thepopulation in northern Mali much better. It is concludedthat although the Peace Accord had all the elements to be anexclusive elite pact, its priorities largely reflect thoseof the population, granting it much higher probability of success.