Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa

Ahmed, S. Amer ; Cruz, Marcio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: demographic dividend;    growth;    poverty;    SACU;    customs union;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7798
RP-ID  :  WPS7798

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The countries of the Southern AfricanCustoms Union have relatively diverse demographic andeconomic starting points. These economies have the potentialto realize demographic dividends and experience anacceleration in their income per capita growth and povertyreduction progress through forthcoming shifts in their agestructures. Between 35 and 75 percent of poverty reductionin 2015-50 in Southern African Customs Union economies couldbe attributed to demographic shifts in a business-as-usualscenario of economic development, if employment rates are atleast maintained. The magnitude of the demographic dividendscould be greater if countries are able to achieve policyoutcomes in parallel in the areas of education,savings-investment, and employment. Scenario analyses ofthese different policy outcomes interacting with theshifting age structures in different ways suggestquantitatively different economic impacts despitequalitatively similar policies. Improving educationalattainment is found to be most important in Lesotho andSwaziland; mobilizing savings for higher investment can bemost useful for Botswana; and improving employment rates,especially by closing gender gaps, can be most useful forSouth Africa and Namibia.