Risk Management in Border Inspection

Hillberry, Russell ; Karabay, Bilgehan ; Tan, Shawn W.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: TRADE FACILITATION;    BORDER INSPECTION;    RISK MANAGEMENT;    SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY STANDARDS;    AMBIGUITY AVERSION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9438
RP-ID  :  WPS9438

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

As part of their commitments under theWorld Trade Organization's Agreement on TradeFacilitation, many developing countries are set to adoptrisk management, a strategy for selecting import shipmentsfor inspection. This paper formalizes key enforcement issuesrelated to risk management. It argues that the complexitiesof international trade oversight mean that inspectingagencies lack certainty about the conditional probabilitythat a given shipment will not comply with importregulations. Ambiguity of this sort is likely to beespecially important in developing countries that lack thesophisticated information technology used in advanced riskmanagement systems. This paper formalizes a role forambiguity in a theoretical model of border inspection. Itprovides evidence suggesting that ambiguity affectsinspection rates. Finally, the paper calibrates the modeland shock the ambiguity parameters to illustrate theconsequences of an information technology-driven improvementin risk management capabilities for equilibrium rates ofsearch and compliance.