The Chongqing 2035 scenario studycompares the modeled outcomes of two different developmentpaths, as represented by land use scenarios for projectedgrowth of 5.8 million new urban residents and 4 million newjobs.A “Trend” scenario continues past patterns of landdevelopment, characterized by continued centralization ofhigh-level employment around the existing downtown core, andexpansive superblock, office park, and industrialdevelopment throughout the central city area. Forcomparison, a “Compact Growth” scenario posits a polycentricregional structure created through focused, walkable, mixeduse development around existing and planned transit nodes.While other possibilities exist on the spectrum between andaround them, these two alternative futures embody theprincipal development choices facing Chongqing as it looksahead, and serve to highlight the range of benefits andconsequences that can be expected.Urban development patternshave substantial effects on laying the foundation forprogress in climate mitigation and environmentalsustainability. While policies that address thetechnological aspects of vehicle efficiency, buildingperformance, and energy supply also play roles in conservingresources and reducing emissions, the impacts of land use oneither increasing or reducing demand highlight thefundamental role of strategic development.This technicalreport describes the scenarios and their implications forChongqing and its residents, and the methodology behind theRapidFire model as adapted for use in the city. Examiningthe comprehensive effects of growth on a range ofperformance indicators—including land consumption,transportation mode share and auto travel, infrastructurecosts, energy use, and emissions—has shown how greatlyChongqing’s potential urban development patterns vary intheir ability to support its growth as a global, sustainable city.
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