Kenya is an emerging middle incomecountry with a growing share of its population living inurban areas. The country is at a relatively early stage ofurbanisation, with around 27 percent of Kenyans living inurban areas, yet projections suggest that by 2050, abouthalf the population will be living in cities. The NairobiMetropolitan Region in particular will see rapid growth.Nairobi is expected to become a city of more than 6 millionpeople by 2030, up from its currently estimated 4 million.This urbanisation has the potential to improve economicopportunities and living conditions for all Kenyans.However, there are also several challenges associated withthis shift and concentration of population. Withurbanisation comes a substantial amount of new construction,much of which has occurred in cities with limited capacityto ensure the structures in which people live, work andgather are safely sited and built to withstand both chronicstresses (i.e. fire and spontaneous collapse) and disastershocks (i.e. earthquakes and floods). Informality, lowdensity development and urban sprawl are commoncharacteristics across Kenya's urban areas.Approximately 61 percent of Kenya's urban populationare living in informal settlements. Kenya is exposed to awide range of hazards, particularly droughts and floods, butalso landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions andwildfires. Kenya is also highly vulnerable to recurrent andchronic risks. Its major cities witnessed 26 reported casesof major building collapse since 1996. Furthermore, Kenya isranked as the 27th most prone country to fire-related deathsin the world. The city of Nairobi recorded 244 fires in 2017in its informal settlements, claiming the lives of 32people. In many ways, Kenya is at a crossroads in itsefforts of urbanising and developing towards middle incomestatus. Regulatory decisions made now will have asignificant impact on the long-term safety, productivity andresilience of the urban built environment.
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