Serbia’s New Growth Agenda : Increasing Exports

Frias, Jaime ; Shimbov, Bojan ; Davies, Elwyn ; Ek, Colin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS;    EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION;    TRADE PROMOTION;    TRADE FACILITATION;    FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;   

RP-ID  :  147153

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Evidence from several countries revealsthat nations that have open economies tend to enjoy higherincome than those with closed economies (Lind and Ramondo2018). Openness to hosting multinationalfirms can lead tofirms in receiving countries acquiring new technology andskills (Harrison and Rodriguez-Clare 2010), and toproductivity-enhancing spillovers, particularly throughvertical commercial relationships between foreign anddomestic suppliers. Learning by exporting offers positiveknowledge externalities, and it comprises myriad ways inwhich exports can stimulate growth in productivity,including development of exporter capabilities, such asmarketing new products; upgrading product quality; andacquiring expertise in managing customer relationships bydealing with foreign buyers. The value from knowledgespillovers and the promise of job creation are often seen aspositive externalities and are usually brought in to justifypolicy interventions in the form of tax incentives, grants,and other concessions (access to land sites at minimal orlow cost). It is often thought that spillovers from foreignfirms are driven by transfers of technology and by learningabout markets by exporting. Learning from foreign buyers issupposed to be channeled directly to the exporters or passedthrough to local suppliers and competitors in domesticmarkets. There is some evidence that in Serbia, theinternational competitiveness of domestic exporters has beendiminishing, and government programs to support links withmarkets receive meager financial allocations. Recentsuccesses in exports of manufactures have revealed the greatpotential of Serbia, but these have been driven by only afew firms, many of them foreign-owned. This has loweredexpectations of inclusive and widespread growth. There isalso a growing sense that government efforts to promoteexports and attract export-oriented investment in Serbiahave instead been directed to attracting foreign directinvestment (FDI) at the expense of export promotion, whichhas not been particularly effective. A looming question hasbecome whether the current policy mix for promotingcompetitive Serbian exports needs realignment.