The Impacts of the El Niño and La Niña on Large Grain Producing Countries in ECA : Yield, Poverty and Policy Response

World Bank

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CLIMATE IMPACT;    WEATHER FORECASTING;    GRAIN PRODUCTION;    POVERTY;    FOOD SECURITY;   

RP-ID  :  ACS24825

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

There is a need to further examine andenhance knowledge concerning the relationship among El Niñoand La Niña cycles, drought events, and grain production inthe Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) region,which accounts for more than one third of total wheatexports. This report contributes to close this knowledgegap. A data-driven analysis is utilized to gain a betterunderstanding of (a) the potential impact on grainproduction of droughts linked to the El Niño/La Niñaphenomenon in RUK, (b) RUK governments’ policy response tothose events and how domestic and regional grain markets areaffected, and (c) the implications for food security andpoverty in the RUK region. The results from the analysissuggest that the RUK region’s response to climatic eventsincluding droughts must change from reactive to preventiveand predictive. It must also consider a broad range ofinterventions to manage risk. Emerging digital technologiesoffer unique predictive and diagnostic capabilities that canbe coupled with climate-smart agriculture to improveresilience to El Niño and La Niña events