Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 14, Fall 2018 : Higher but Fragile Growth

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ECONOMIC GROWTH;    PUBLIC SPENDING;    JOB CREATION;    EMPLOYMENT;    TAXATION;   

RP-ID  :  138952

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Growth in the Western Balkans hasstrengthened to an estimated 3.5 percent. In most of theregion, growth projections for 2018 have been revisedupward. Growth was stimulated by higher public investmentand consumption. Driven by tax reforms and faster growth,higher tax revenues created fiscal space, which somecountries rushed to use for current spending and capitalinvestment. Higher exports are also necessary for moresecure long-term growth. External imbalances have been highbut mostly stable. The risks clouding a positive growthoutlook are both external and internal. A possibletightening of the financing conditions in internationalcapital markets is a downside risk, especially in countriesthat have external and fiscal imbalances. With domesticsovereign bond markets often underdeveloped, Western Balkancountries are exposed to rises in global interest rates.Robust growth in the region also depends heavily on domesticand regional political stability, which define the speed ofstructural reforms. Mitigating these external and internalrisks requires both a firm commitment to fiscalconsolidation and acceleration of structural reforms.