Afghanistan will experience a majorsecurity and development transition over the next threeyears. At the Kabul and Lisbon Conferences in 2010, NATO andthe Afghan government agreed that full responsibility forsecurity would be handed over to the Afghan NationalSecurity Forces (ANSF) by the end of 2014. Developmentprogress since 2001 has been mixed. Some major achievementshave been recorded, such as rapid economic growth (withlarge fluctuations), relatively low inflation (afterhyperinflation in the 1990s), better public financialmanagement, and gains in basic health and education. Keysocial indicators, including life expectancy and maternalmortality, have improved markedly (admittedly from anextremely low base), and women are participating more in theeconomy. Yet in other respects, particularly governance andinstitution building, the country has fared less well, andmany indicators have worsened in recent years. Afghanistanremains one of the world's least developed countries,with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of only $528in 2010/11. More than a third of the population live belowthe poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and atserious risk of falling into poverty, and three?quarters areilliterate. This report is intended to be comprehensive, soit also discusses the broader historical and politicaleconomy context of development in the country, and howAfghanistan compares with other countries that haveundergone their own transitions over the past 30 years. Thisreport is based on data collected from various sources in2011, and its analysis and findings therefore comprise theteam's considered assessment using the best availableinformation available by the end of that year. In addition,projections of future trends in Afghanistan inevitably aresubject to uncertainty and reflect any weaknesses in theunderlying data. Thus the report's projections shouldbe seen as subject to further adjustments and improvementsas better and more recent information become available. Thisreport is presented in two volumes. Volume one is astand?alone Overview which highlights the main findings,projections, and recommendations of the study. Volume twoconsists of five chapters presenting the detailed empiricalbackground, analytical findings, projections, andrecommendations of the study, along with a concludingchapter and three technical appendices.
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