Kenya Public Expenditure Analysis 2019 : Creating Fiscal Space to Deliver the Big Four while Undertaking a Needed Fiscal Consolidation

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FISCAL TRENDS;    MACROECONOMIC POLICY;    PUBLIC DEBT;    REVENUE MOBILIZATION;    PUBLIC EXPENDITURE;   

RP-ID  :  139348

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Kenyan government remains committedto a planned fiscal consolidation pathway, which should helpcontain public debt stock at a sustainable level.Nonetheless, there are significant challenges stemming froma slowdown in revenue collection, a growing demand fortransfers to county governments, and the need to fund thebig four agenda. These issues raise the probability forfiscal slippages, requiring adequate mitigation to safeguardmacroeconomic stability. This report provides an overview ofthe challenges in revenue mobilization, the size andcomposition of the national government expenditures, and theefficiency of this spending over the last five years. Theanalysis identifies options for supporting ongoing fiscalconsolidation and creating fiscal space for the big four andbroad public services delivery. There are three keymessages: first, Kenya’s tax revenue as a share of grossdomestic product (GDP) has decreased and decoupled from thegrowth in the economy, suggesting some important constraintsto enhancing revenue collection. Second, government spendingis allocated well (to infrastructure and human capital) butthere is scope to improve outcomes from the use of theseresources. Third, ensuring efficiency and effectiveness ofpublic spending is critical given tight fiscal space and theexpenditure needs under the big four.