The edtion of the Middle East and NorthAfrica (MENA) economic developments and prospectsreportsanalyzes the region's short-term growthprospects given global forecasts and current structuralfeatures of the economies, as well as the region'sprospects for longer-term growth based upon progress inimplementing comprehensive structural reforms. MENA regionhas experienced exceptional growth over the last two years.Over 2003 and 2004, economic growth in MENA averaged morethan 5.6 percent a year, the strongest growth in a decade,and up strongly from the 3.6 percent average yearly growthover the 1990s. On a per capita basis, the MENAregion's 3.5 percent average growth over the last twoyears was the region's strongest growth performancesince the mid-1970s. Accompanying this strong growthperformance, unemployment has declined with the rise in oilprices over 2000- 2004. Unemployment is estimated to havefallen from about 14.9 percent of the labor force in 2000 to13.4 percent currently, the result of a 37 percent increasein the rate of employment creation over the 1990s. In manyrespects, the MENA region is in the midst of an economicboom. However, there are caveats to the region's growthacceleration. For one, it has not been especially broadbased. Comparing growth over the 1990s with growth over thelast two years, 97 percent of the regional growth upturn wasdriven by just four countries - Saudi Arabia, the IslamicRepublic of Iran, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. Infact, nearly half of the region actually experienced growthdownturns relative to the 1990s. Moreover, MENA'srecent positive economic developments have been drivenlargely by external events - in particular, dramaticallyrising oil prices. And importantly, on a per capita basis,the MENA region's growth over the last two yearscontinues to lag that of other regions, a reflection of boththe firming of GDP growth rates across developing regionsand the MENA region's high population growth.
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