Bangladesh Economic Update, September 2011

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO FINANCE;    ACCOUNTING;    ADMINISTERED PRICE;    ADMINISTERED PRICES;    ADMINISTRATIVE REFORMS;   

RP-ID  :  70949

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grewat 6.7 percent in FY11, continuing the upward trend ingrowth after declining during FY06-09. This strongperformance can be repeated in FY12 if exports continue togrow and if garment exports benefit from the agreementreached during the recent India-Bangladesh Summit,remittances continue to recover, and if investment isboosted by improved infrastructure services particularlypower. Risks in the global economy can affect Bangladesh inseveral ways. The standard and poor (S&P) downgrade ofUS debt as well as the debt problems in the Euro Zone areaffecting the international markets and renewing fears ofanother global slowdown. This time around, limited fiscaland monetary space in developed countries increases thechances of a protracted slowdown. If this slowdown occurs,it can affect Bangladesh's balance of payments throughits impact on exports and remittances, put pressure on theexchange rate, increase economic uncertainty, and, in turn,weaken investment and growth. Domestic policies will alsoaffect Bangladesh's economic prospects. A slow pace ofreforms in the investment climate can affect domestic andforeign investment, as can inadequacies in energy supply andthe poor quality of roads. The reversal of trade reforms aswell as weakening of the financial sector can also affectexport growth and investment. Expansionary macroeconomicpolicies could increase risks on the current account andmake inflation management more difficult. Unlike in 2008,Bangladesh has insufficient policy space to cushion theimpact of a second global slowdown through fiscal stimulus.packages and monetary easing. Rapid growth in subsidies,sustained high rate of growth of credit to the privatesector as well as recourse to monetary financing of thefiscal deficit have led to the erosion of the fiscal andmonetary policy space. Much improved fiscal and monetarydiscipline combined with stronger efforts to address theenergy and infrastructure deficits will be critical forsustaining growth performance. Maintaining thelong-established tradition of sound macroeconomic managementwill also be important.