Bangladesh Economic Update, October 2012

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO INFORMATION;    ACCOUNT DEFICITS;    ACCOUNTING;    ADMINISTERED PRICE;    ADMINISTERED PRICES;   

RP-ID  :  73302

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Despite an unfavourable global economy,economic growth in Bangladesh is projected at close to 6percent in fiscal 2013 (FY13). Adverse external demand anddomestic supply constraints continue to be a drag on growth.Shortfalls in exports and investments due to a possibleprotracted crisis in the euro area and internal supplyconstraints may underpin the moderation of growth.Investment targets of the medium term budget framework 2013to 2017 face major obstacles in shortage of electricity andgas supplies, and poorly functioning roads and ports. Onepositive prospect on the investment front is the increase inforeign direct investment in FY12, which surpassed the US$ 1billion for the second time in Bangladesh's history.Fiscal policy is back on track. Fiscal performance in FY12was favourable, notwithstanding increasing subsidies. Theoverall budget deficit in FY12 is estimated at 4.5 percentof Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Domestic financing of thedeficit declined to 3.2 percent of GDP, from 3.5 percent inFY11. Lower government borrowing from the banking system inthe second half of FY12 was a welcome reversal from worryingtrends in the first half of the year. The FY13 budgetdeficit target 5 percent of GDP is modest, though higherthan the estimated 4.5 percent of FY12, and is likely to beundershot primarily because of a shortfall in theimplementation of the ambitious Tk 550 billion annualdevelopment programs, by now a familiar pattern. However,the financing of the deficit may be a challenge with aprojected US$2.2 billion net external financing need,substantially more than the $1.4 billion of the revised FY12budget. The rest of the deficit is projected to be financedfrom domestic sources, with a still heavy 69 percentreliance on bank borrowing. Bangladesh's economicoutlook is subject to several near-term risks. Possibleintensification of the euro area crisis may deepenBangladesh's export slump of the last six months;escalation of global food prices may reverse the recentdecline in food inflation; global oil price shock will placethe balance of payments under pressure again and shrinkfiscal space; banks are susceptible to credit and marketrisk and the global economic vulnerabilities; and increasedpolitical instability and labour unrest may depressinvestments further.