How Two Tests Can Help Contain COVID-19 and Revive the Economy

de Walque, Damien ; Friedman, Jed ; Gatti, Roberta ; Mattoo, Aaditya

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    RECOVERY;    PANDEMIC;    TARGETING TESTING;   

RP-ID  :  147504

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Faced with COVID-19 (Coronavirus),countries are taking drastic action based on littleinformation. Two tests can help governments shorten andsoften economically costly suppression measures while stillcontaining the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Thefirst—a PCR assay—identifies people currently infected bytesting for the presence of live virus in the subject. Thesecond—an antibody test—identifies those rendered immuneafter being infected by searching for COVID-19-specificantibodies. The first test can help contain the diseasebecause it facilitates the identification of infectedpersons, the tracing of their contacts, and isolation in thevery early stages of an epidemic—or after a period ofsuppression, in case of a resurgent epidemic. The second canhelp us assess the extent of immunity in the generalpopulation or subgroups, to finetune social isolation and tomanage health care resources. Wide application of the twotests could transform the battle against COVID-19(Coronavirus), but implementing either on a large scale indeveloping countries presents challenges. The first test isgenerally available, but needs to be processed in adequatelyequipped laboratories with trained staff. The second test iseasy to perform and can be processed quickly on the spot,but at this stage it is produced and available only on alimited basis in a few countries. This policy brief reviewsthe use of both tests, suggests strategies to target theiruse, and discusses the benefits and costs of suchstrategies. If PCR assay testing, together with tracing andisolation, helps reduce the duration of suppression measuresby two weeks, and antibody testing allows one-fifth of theimmune return to work early, the gain could be about 2percent of national income, or about $8 billion for acountry like the Philippines. Because the estimated economicbenefits of the tests are likely to far outweigh the cost,the international community must help countries develop thecapacity to process the first test and procure the second.