Human Capital Outflows : Selection into Migration from the Northern Triangle

Del Carmen, Giselle ; Sousa, Liliana D.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;    MIGRATION;    IMMIGRATION;    LABOR MARKET;    HUMAN CAPITAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8334
RP-ID  :  WPS8334

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study quantifies the outflow ofhuman capital associated with migration from Guatemala, ElSalvador, and Honduras since 1990. To measure the outflow ofskills and human capital and how this has changed over time,the study uses information on Northern Triangle migrantsresiding in the United States, a group that accounts forover 90 percent of all migrants from the three countries.The results suggest that these migrants are, in general,positively selected into migration. That is, based on theirobservable characteristics, the individuals would have ahigher earnings distribution relative to individuals who donot migrate. The results show a decrease in selectivitybetween the 10-year cohort of migrants who arrived by 2000and those who arrived by 2014. This finding may reflectincreased access to migration networks by lower-incomehouseholds and individuals. The data suggest that the lossin human capital associated with a 10-year outflow ofadults, as measured by foregone local wages, represented 1.9percent of gross domestic product in El Salvador, 1.5percent in Honduras, and 1.0 percent in Guatemala.