Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Comin, Diego ; Loayza, Norman ; Pasha, Farooq ; Serven, Luis

American Economic Association

关键词: Neoclassical aggregative model;    business cycle;    trade;    capital movements;    diffusion processes;   

DOI  :  10.1257/mac.6.4.209

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper studies the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed (N ) to developing economies (S ) with a two-country, asymmetric, DSGE model with endogenous development of new technologies in N, and sunk costs of exporting and transferring the production of the intermediate goods to S. Consistent with the data, the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in N and S; shocks to N have a large effect on S; business cycles in N lead over medium term fluctuations in S; the cross-correlation of outputs is larger than consumption; and interest rates in S are counter-cyclical.