Predicting School Dropout with Administrative Data : New Evidence from Guatemala and Honduras

Adelman, Melissa ; Haimovich, Francisco ; Ham, Andres ; Vazquez, Emmanuel

Taylor and Francis

关键词: DROPOUT RATE;    SCHOOL ADMINISTRATION;    PRIMARY EDUCATION;    SECONDARY EDUCATION;    PREDICTION;   

DOI  :  10.1080/09645292.2018.1433127
RP-ID  :  129476

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

School dropout is a growing concern across Latin America because of its negative social and economic consequences. Identifying who is likely to drop out, and therefore could be targeted for interventions, is a well-studied prediction problem in countries with strong administrative data. In this paper, we use new data in Guatemala and Honduras to estimate some of the first dropout prediction models for lower-middle income countries. These models correctly identify 80% of sixth grade students who will drop out within the next year, performing better than other commonly used targeting approaches and as well as models used in the United States.