Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects

Bernard, Andrew B. ; Boler, Esther Ann ; Massari, Renzo ; Reyes, Jose-Daniel ; Taglioni, Daria

American Economic Association

关键词: EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS;    TRADE;    FIRM ENTRY;   

DOI  :  10.1257/aer.20141070
RP-ID  :  122569

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.