Stop! The Polio Vaccination Cessation Game

Barrett, Scott

World Bank

关键词: birth rate;    endemic countries;    epidemiology;    global polio eradication initiative;    health policy;   

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Should polio be eradicated worldwide, countries must decide whether to continue tovaccinate with the live-attenuated vaccine, to continue to vaccinate with the alternative,killed vaccine, or to cease vaccinating. To reap a dividend from polio eradication,countries must choose the last option, but vaccination cessation entails interdependentrisks as well as rewards. This article models the polio vaccination cessation game,deriving the conditions that support vaccination cessation as an equilibrium, describingthe policies and institutions needed to steer countries toward this equilibrium, andpresenting crude quantitative estimates of the gains to supporting this equilibrium.