Civil wars and violence havesignificantly damaged human, social and physical capital inthe war-torn countries of Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. Theresults on educational attainment are devastating. Estimatesby the UN show that more than 13 million children are out ofschool in these countries.The World Bank is currentlyundertaking a similar assessment for Yemen with thecollaboration of UN agencies, the European Union, theIslamic Development Bank, and country authorities. Thepreliminary estimates, based on data as of October 31, 2015,show the damage in four cities--Sana’a, Aden, Taiz andZinjibar-- over six sectors – education, energy, health,housing, transport, and water and sanitation-- to be in therange of USD 4.0 – 5.0 billion.An end to the conflicts inMENA will improve macroeconomic indicators through restoringsecurity, increasing investment, and the commencement ofreconstruction activity. Social indicators will also improvewith growth as well as by the shifting of public resourcesfrom military expenses to education and health. All in, apeace settlement in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, therefore,could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports,allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve currentaccount balances, increase foreign reserves, and boosteconomic growth in the medium term. This can bring positivespillovers to the rest of the region.
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