Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design : The Decision Tree Framework

Ray, Patrick A. ; Brown, Casey M.

Washington, DC:World Bank

关键词: Climate Change;    Climate Change Adaptation;    Climate Change Stress Test;    Decision Scaling;    Decision Tree;   

DOI  :  10.1596/978-1-4648-0477-9
RP-ID  :  99180

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Decision Tree Framework described in this book provides resource-limited project planners andprogram managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clearmethod for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process,the project planner will be empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilitiesof the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary)improved the project’s feasibility and profitability.The framework adopts a “bottom-up” approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understandingof a project’s vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties(for example, economic, environmental, demographic, or political). It helps to identify projects thatperform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutionsthat are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected.