An Operational Algorithm for Evaluating Satellite Collision Consequence

Lechtenberg, Travis

关键词: AEROSPACE ENVIRONMENTS;    ALGORITHMS;    COLLISIONS;    DATA BASES;    GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS;    NANOSATELLITES;    PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS;    PROBABILITY THEORY;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    SATELLITE ORBITS;    SPACE DEBRIS;    SPACECRAFT TRACKING;   

RP-ID  :  AAS 19-669,GSFC-E-DAA-TN71110-1

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来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

Risk is properly considered as the combination of likelihood and consequence; but conjunction assessment has usually limited itself to the consideration of only collision likelihood. When considered from an orbital regime protection perspective, the focus shifts to the question of the amount of debris that a collision might produce (the “consequence”). The present paper presents an operational algorithm for determining the expected amount of debris production should a conjunction result in a collision, and an assessment of the algorithm’s fidelity against a database of characterized objects.