Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) Dynamic Positioning System (DPS)

Thigpen, Eric B ; Boyer, Roger L ; Stewart, Michael A

关键词: DRILLING;    HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING;    PROBABILITY THEORY;    RELIABILITY;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    SAFETY FACTORS;    SAFETY MANAGEMENT;    SYSTEMS ANALYSIS;    DATA ACQUISITION;    GULF OF MEXICO;    INDUSTRIES;    OILS;    POSITION (LOCATION);    SITUATIONAL AWARENESS;   

RP-ID  :  JSC-E-DAA-TN54300

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been utilized by NASA in a variety of space oriented projects. It has served as one of the primary risk identification and ranking tools. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. As a result, NASA has entered into an agreement with Anadarko Petroleum Company (APC) to collaboratively develop PRAs for different aspects of the subsea drilling and completion process of well development. This paper documents how PRA was applied to estimate the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. Since this project was in essence a pilot project, the PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.