Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

Hadley, Stanton W ; Erickson III, David J ; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

关键词: Heating;    Climate Change;    General Circulation Models;    Sensitivity;    Electricity;   

DOI  :  10.2172/974607
RP-ID  :  ORNL/TM-2006/524
RP-ID  :  DE-AC05-00OR22725
RP-ID  :  974607

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.