Intercomparison of present and future climates simulated by coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs

Covey, C ; AchutaRao, K M ; Lambert, S J

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

关键词: Carbon Dioxide;    General Circulation Models;    Sensitivity;    58 Geosciences;    54 Environmental Sciences;   

DOI  :  10.2172/15013400
RP-ID  :  UCRL-ID-140325
RP-ID  :  W-7405-ENG-48
RP-ID  :  15013400

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

We present an overview of results from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This phase of CMIP has archived output from both unforced (''control run'') and perturbed (1% per year increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide) simulations by 15 modern coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. The models are about equally divided between those employing and those not employing ad hoc flux corrections at the ocean-atmosphere interface. The new generation of non-flux-connected control runs are nearly as stable and agree with observations nearly as well as the flux-corrected models. This development represents significant progress in the state of the art of climate modeling since the Second (1995) Scientific Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; see Gates et al. 1996). From the increasing-CO{sub 2} runs, we find that differences between different models, while substantial, are not as great as would be expected from earlier assessments that relied on equilibrium climate sensitivity.