Probabilistic consequence model of accidenal or intentional chemical releases.

Chang, Y.-S. ; Samsa, M. E. ; Folga, S. M. ; Hartmann, H. M.

Argonne National Laboratory

关键词: Environmental Impacts;    Mathematical Models;    Sabotage;    Hazardous Materials Spills;    Monte Carlo Method;   

DOI  :  10.2172/937013
RP-ID  :  ANL/DIS-08/3
RP-ID  :  DE-AC02-06CH11357
RP-ID  :  937013

美国|其它

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

In this work, general methodologies for evaluating the impacts of large-scale toxic chemical releases are proposed. The potential numbers of injuries and fatalities, the numbers of hospital beds, and the geographical areas rendered unusable during and some time after the occurrence and passage of a toxic plume are estimated on a probabilistic basis. To arrive at these estimates, historical accidental release data, maximum stored volumes, and meteorological data were used as inputs into the SLAB accidental chemical release model. Toxic gas footprints from the model were overlaid onto detailed population and hospital distribution data for a given region to estimate potential impacts. Output results are in the form of a generic statistical distribution of injuries and fatalities associated with specific toxic chemicals and regions of the United States. In addition, indoor hazards were estimated, so the model can provide contingency plans for either shelter-in-place or evacuation when an accident occurs. The stochastic distributions of injuries and fatalities are being used in a U.S. Department of Homeland Security-sponsored decision support system as source terms for a Monte Carlo simulation that evaluates potential measures for mitigating terrorist threats. This information can also be used to support the formulation of evacuation plans and to estimate damage and cleanup costs.