Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

Sprigg, James A. ; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Sabotage;    Economics-Mathematical Models.;    Economics;    Mathematical Models;    29 Energy Planning, Policy And Economy;   

DOI  :  10.2172/903422
RP-ID  :  SAND2004-5500
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  903422

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges to the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.