CMC occasional papers : a missile stability regime for South Asia.

Khan, Feroz Hassan (Pakistan Army, Islamabad, Pakistan) ; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey ; Rajen, Gaurav (Gaia Research Consulting, Albuquerque, NM)

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Pakistan;    Verification Nuclear Weapons;    Missiles;    Security;    98 Nuclear Disarmament, Safeguards, And Physical Protection;   

DOI  :  10.2172/919181
RP-ID  :  SAND2004-2832
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  919181

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

India and Pakistan have created sizeable ballistic missile forces and are continuing to develop and enlarge them. These forces can be both stabilizing (e.g., providing a survivable force for deterrence) and destabilizing (e.g., creating strategic asymmetries). Missile forces will be a factor in bilateral relations for the foreseeable future, so restraint is necessary to curtail their destabilizing effects. Such restraint, however, must develop within an atmosphere of low trust. This report presents a set of political and operational options, both unilateral and bilateral, that decreases tensions, helps rebuild the bilateral relationship, and prepares the ground for future steps in structural arms control. Significant steps, which build on precedents and do not require extensive cooperation, are possible despite strained relations. The approach is made up of three distinct phases: (1) tension reduction measures, (2) confidence building measures, and (3) arms control agreements. The goal of the first phase is to initiate unilateral steps that are substantive and decrease tensions, establish missiles as a security topic for bilateral discussion, and set precedents for limited bilateral cooperation. The second phase would build confidence by expanding current bilateral security agreements, formalizing bilateral understandings, and beginning discussion of monitoring procedures. The third phase could include bilateral agreements limiting some characteristics of national missile forces including the cooperative incorporation of monitoring and verification.