Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

Boring, Ronald L. ; Gertman, David ; Joe, Jeffrey ; Marble, Julie ; Galyean, William ; Blackwood, Larry ; Blackman, Harold

Idaho National Laboratory

关键词: Probability;    Tractable;    99 - General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science;    Precursor;    Operating Events;   

DOI  :  10.2172/911228
RP-ID  :  INL/EXT-05-00433
RP-ID  :  DE-AC07-99ID-13727
RP-ID  :  911228

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.