Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

Johnson, Jay Dean ; Helton, Jon Craig ; Sallaberry, Cedric J. ; Storlie, Curt B.

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Probability;    Scatterplots;    Sensitivity Theory (Mathematics);    99 General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science;    Uncertainty-Mathematical Models.;   

DOI  :  10.2172/886897
RP-ID  :  SAND2006-2901
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  886897

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.