Statistical Comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Forecast Meteorology with Observations

Buckley, R.L.

Savannah River Site (S.C.)

关键词: Statistics;    Ambient Temperature;    Meteorology;    Regional Analysis;    11 Nuclear Fuel Cycle And Fuel Materials;   

DOI  :  10.2172/799312
RP-ID  :  WSRC-TR-2001-00563
RP-ID  :  AC09-96SR18500
RP-ID  :  799312

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

A statistical comparison of observations and forecasts using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is discussed. Simulated and observed values of wind direction, wind speed, and temperature, collected twice daily for a two-year period from April 1998 through March 2000, are compared in a variety of ways for 5 different locations in the southeast United States. Turbulence quantities are also compared for a one-year period beginning in February 1999 for the SRS. Results are presented in the form of scatter plots and histograms, as well as time-based line plots for the different locations within the modeling domain. Both surface and upper-level model predictions are compared with observations taken from both the National Weather Service and local SRS tower locations (surface measures only). Variability based on the time of year, the forecast hour, the location of the observations, and the height above ground for each of these variables is discussed. Statistics of accuracy used for comparison include absolute mean bias, relative bias, root-mean-square error, standard deviation, and the index of agreement. The most severe degradation in results occurs during the transition periods of early evening (approximately 19 to 20 LST) and late morning (approximately 07 to 08 LST), especially for temperature.