R&D Advancement, Technology Diffusion, and Impact on Evaluation of Public R&D

Moore, M. C. ; Arent, D. J. ; Norland, D.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.)

关键词: Acceleration;    Market Evolution;    Diffusion;    Discount Rates;    Forecasting;   

DOI  :  10.2172/15011719
RP-ID  :  NREL/TP-620-37102
RP-ID  :  AC36-99-GO10337
RP-ID  :  15011719

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

In a 2001 report titled ''Research at DOE: Was It Worth It?'', a National Research Council (NRC) committee defined a set of simplifying rules to estimate the net economic benefits from technologies supported by the Department of Energy (DOE). This NREL paper evaluates the efficacy of the NRC rules compared to published literature on acceleration of technology introduction into markets, technology diffusion, and infrastructure change. It also offers considerations for revisions of the rules that call for the use of technology and sector-specific data, advanced forecasting techniques, and sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of the methodology.