SAPHIRE 8 Volume 2 - Technical Reference

Smith, C. L. ; Wood, S. T. ; Galyean, W. J. ; Schroeder, J. A. ; Sattison, M. B.

Idaho National Laboratory

关键词: Probability;    Risk;    Systems Analysis Reliability;    Saphire;    Sampling;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1016192
RP-ID  :  INL/EXT-09-17010
RP-ID  :  DE-AC07-05ID14517
RP-ID  :  1016192

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of computer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs). Herein information is provided on the principles used in the construction and operation of Version 8.0 of the SAPHIRE system. This report summarizes the fundamental mathematical concepts of sets and logic, fault trees, and probability. This volume then describes the algorithms used to construct a fault tree and to obtain the minimal cut sets. It gives the formulas used to obtain the probability of the top event from the minimal cut sets, and the formulas for probabilities that apply for various assumptions concerning reparability and mission time. It defines the measures of basic event importance that SAPHIRE can calculate. This volume gives an overview of uncertainty analysis using simple Monte Carlo sampling or Latin Hypercube sampling, and states the algorithms used by this program to generate random basic event probabilities from various distributions. Also covered are enhance capabilities such as seismic analysis, Workspace algorithms, cut set "recovery," end state manipulation, and use of "compound events."