Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in the BPA Control Area

Lu, Shuai ; Brothers, Alan J. ; McKinstry, Craig A. ; Jin, Shuangshuang ; Makarov, Yuri V.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (U.S.)

关键词: Probability Electric Power;    Bayesian Net;    Electric Power;    Decision Support;    24 Power Transmission And Distribution;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1012895
RP-ID  :  PNNL-20120
RP-ID  :  AC05-76RL01830
RP-ID  :  1012895

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This report investigated the uncertainties with the operations of the power system and their contributions to tail events, especially under high penetration of wind. A Bayesian network model is established to quantify the impact of these uncertainties on system imbalance. The framework is presented for a decision support tool, which can help system operators better estimate the need for balancing reserves and prepare for tail events.