Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

Hernandez, Jacquelynne ; Parks, Mancel Jordan ; Jennings, Barbara Joan ; Kaplan, Paul Garry ; Brown, Theresa Jean ; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Stresses;    99 General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science;    National Security;    Economics;    Vulnerability;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1007318
RP-ID  :  SAND2010-6266
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  1007318

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.