Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn

David C. Gompert ; Hans Binnendijk ; Bonny Lin

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

关键词: International Diplomacy;    RAND-initiated;    Assumption Based Planning;    China;    United States;    Intelligence Community;    Decisionmaking;    Warfare and Military Operations;   

DOI  :  10.7249/RR768
ISBN  :  9780833087775
RP-ID  :  RR-768-RC

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: RAND Corporation Published Research

【 摘 要 】

The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon's invasion of Russia to America's invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models, or simplified representations of their worlds, that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case. Leaders' egos, intuitions, unwarranted self-confidence, and aversion to information that contradicted their views prevented them from correcting their models. Yet advisors and bureaucracies can be inadequate safeguards and can, out of fawning or fear, reinforce leaders' flawed thinking.