Regional Implications of an Independent Kurdistan

Alireza Nader ; Larry Hanauer ; Brenna Allen ; Ali Scotten

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

关键词: International Diplomacy;    Turkey;    RAND-initiated;    The Kurdistan Region - Iraq;    Baghdad;    Politics and Government;    Iran;   

DOI  :  10.7249/RR1452
ISBN  :  9780833095695
RP-ID  :  RR-1452-RC

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: RAND Corporation Published Research

【 摘 要 】

This report examines the potential implications for the region if the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq were at some point to declare its secession from Iraq. Specifically, the authors analyze the interests of three key regional neighbors — the Iraqi central government, Turkey, and Iran — and explore policies each actor may pursue in response to Kurdish independence. The authors discuss the possible responses of Baghdad, Ankara, and Tehran under three different scenarios: a unilateral declaration of Kurdish independence that is broadly opposed by the region, a "last man standing" scenario in which the Iraqi state collapses and the Kurdistan Regional Government becomes an independent state, and a gradual estrangement between Erbil and Baghdad. The authors also consider how each of these scenarios could be influenced by a resurgence of Kurdish nationalism in which Kurdish populations in Iran, Turkey, or Syria not only support the establishment of a sovereign Kurdistan in northern Iraq, but even seek to join the new nation.