Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

Paul K. Davis ; Walter L. Perry ; John S. Hollywood ; David Manheim

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

关键词: Intelligence Community;    Terrorism Threat Assessment;    Counterterrorism;    Mathematics;    Robust Decision Making;   

DOI  :  10.7249/RR1200
ISBN  :  9780833092779
RP-ID  :  RR-1200-NAVY

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: RAND Corporation Published Research

【 摘 要 】

An element of thwarting terrorist attacks is observing suspicious individuals over time with such diverse means as scanners and other devices, travel records, behavioral observations, and intelligence sources. Such observations provide data that are often both complex and "soft" — i.e., qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, or ambiguous — and also contradictory or even deceptive. Analysts face the challenge of heterogeneous information fusion — that is, combining such data to form a realistic assessment of threat. This report presents research on various heterogeneous information fusion methods and describes a research prototype system for fusing uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information. The context is counterterrorism, for both military and civilian applications, but the ideas are also applicable in intelligence and law enforcement.